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👨‍⚖️ Beyond the Hammer: Smarter Ways to Read the Market

The metrics that matter more in today’s shifting market

The Brief together with Harcourts
Ready25

GOOD MORNING FROM ELITE AGENT

On August 15, 1969, hundreds of thousands of people gathered on a quiet dairy farm in Bethel, New York, for what became one of the most legendary events in music history: Woodstock. Three days of peace, music, and mud turned an empty paddock into a buzzing, once-in-a-lifetime community.

In real estate, some open homes can feel a little like that opening day - you prepare the space, the crowds arrive, and suddenly the place comes alive in ways you didn’t quite expect. The magic, whether it’s a rock festival or a Saturday inspection, happens when the atmosphere clicks, people connect, and everyone leaves with a story to tell (ideally without the mud).

Today’s read time: 7 minutes, 42 seconds

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The Agency

AUCTIONS

Rethinking clearance rates

Credit: Grok

Are auction clearance rates still the market’s “GOAT”?

For years, auction clearance rates have been touted as the ultimate barometer of Australia’s property market quick to headline, easy to digest, and a favourite of media outlets. But Avi Khan asks whether they still deserve “Greatest of All Time” status in a market where sales methods and buyer behaviour are more varied than ever.

Clearance rates only capture a slice of the market, ignoring pre-auction sales, post-auction negotiations, and the growing share of private treaty and off-market transactions. The bigger question: are we letting a narrow metric dictate strategy, sentiment, and even sellers’ choices?

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The problem with the headline number

Clearance rates measure “the percentage of homes listed for auction that sell either under the hammer or shortly after.” But, as Avi points out, they exclude properties sold before auction, often (“at a premium”), and those withdrawn from sale. In many areas, auctions make up less than half of all transactions, meaning the metric is inherently limited.

As an alternative, days on market (DOM) may tell a fuller story, capturing confidence and speed across all sale types. In a hot market, private treaty DOM might be under 10 days; in a slow one, it could blow out beyond 100. None of that nuance makes the clearance rate ticker.

Strategy distortion and media bias

In quieter periods, clearance rates can be artificially high because “only strong contenders may go to auction,” while less competitive listings quietly shift to private treaty. This “self-filtering effect” can give a false sense of market strength.

Avi says while mainstream media love clearance rates because they’re quick and headline-friendly, high rates can mask falling prices, and low ones can create “unnecessary panic” even when underlying demand is healthy. This can have real consequences, potentially scaring sellers away from auctions when they might have been the ideal method for their property.

Beyond the GOAT: what we should track instead

Avi argues it’s time to “broaden the lens” and consider other indicators:

  • Pre and Post Auction Premiums – capturing strong results outside the event.

  • Days on Market – applicable to all sales methods.

  • Buyer Sentiment & Lending Conditions – understanding demand drivers.

  • Discounting & Pricing Trends – gauging vendor flexibility.

  • Listing Volumes & Turnover – measuring overall activity.

Auction clearance rates aren’t irrelevant, but in Avi’s view, they should “share the spotlight with other, more well-rounded indicators” that reflect the true complexity of today’s market.

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TOGETHER WITH HARCOURTS

Harcourts is rolling out AI training. Photo: Supplied

Harcourts launches first dedicated AI training for agents

Harcourts is set to roll out a first-of-its-kind AI training program for its Australian and New Zealand network, kicking off on 27 August 2025. Developed in partnership with Elite Agent’s Samantha McLean, the six-week initiative is designed to give agents practical, real-world skills to streamline operations, reduce admin, and elevate client service. Demand has been fierce, with 250 agents signing up in the first few hours and hundreds more since. Harcourts CEO Adrian Knowles says the goal is to deliver smarter, faster, more personalised service, without losing the human touch.

"By leveraging these tools, we’re giving our teams a significant advantage to stay competitive and excel in providing unparalleled service,” he said.

The program, led by Samantha, will guide agents in using AI for everything from crafting copy to streamlining daily tasks, ultimately saving them time and helping them win more listings.

"By leveraging AI, you can strengthen long-term relationships, enhance your reputation, and establish yourself as the expert in your market.”

Read more about the AI program wth Harcourts here.

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DECLINE IN AFFORDABLE HOMES

Nerida Conisbee, Ray White Group Chief Economist. Photo: Supplied

Australia’s affordable housing stock plunges: Nearly 23 homes lost each day

Australia’s capital cities are losing 24 affordable houses a day, with unit gains falling well short of replacing them, according to Ray White Chief Economist Nerida Conisbee. Affordable homes are defined as those priced under $750,000, and the analysis of sales between 2015 and 2025 shows a net reduction of 22.9 affordable properties daily.

Sydney leads the decline, losing 7.1 properties each day, while Brisbane sheds 5.0 and Melbourne 3.6. Smaller markets like the Gold Coast, Adelaide, Canberra and Hobart are also seeing significant drops, with Darwin the only capital to record growth.

LISTINGS

Despite favourable market conditions, new property listings are well below average. Image: Getty

Sellers in the box seat

New residential listings remain well below average despite strong population growth, rising rents, and solid price gains. LJ Hooker’s Head of Research & Business Intelligence, Mathew Tiller, says structural factors are to blame, including limited upsizing/downsizing options, high interest rates, construction delays, and the rise of off-market sales.

With demand strong and competition low, he believes sellers who list now are likely to attract serious buyers and strong prices, especially with further rate cuts expected to boost borrowing power.

NZ MARKET

NZ property resale profits have hit a 10-year low, with just 89.4% of sales in Q2 making a gain. Median profit sits at $279K, down from the $440K peak, as high inventory and softer prices give buyers the edge. Photo: Getty

Property profits slide to decade low

New Zealand's property market is seeing its lowest rate of resale profits in over a decade, with 89.4% of properties selling for more than their purchase price in the June quarter. The national median gain was $279,000, well below the late-2021 peak of $440,000. Time matters significantly – properties sold at a profit had been held for 9.4 years on average, while loss-making sales averaged just 3.5 years of ownership.

CELEBRITY HOMES

Terry & Heather Dubrow have sold their Beverly Hills estate for US$16.5M, complete with ocean views, tennis court & luxe interiors, proving the high-end market is still sizzling. Photo: Josh Flagg

Terry and Heather Dubrow’s mansion sells for $16.5 million

The luxury real estate market in Beverly Hills remains strong as Terry and Heather Dubrow just sold their stunning mansion for US$16.5M. The 9,000-square-foot estate sits on 8.3 private acres and features five bedrooms, nine bathrooms, a tennis court, and panoramic views from the city to the ocean. Interestingly, the international buyer had previously backed out of purchasing the same property before the Dubrows acquired it.

MOVERS + SHAKERS

Martin and Mark Mintoff. Photo: Supplied

Mintoff brothers join Harcourts Australia

Award-winning agents Martin and Mark bring their successful team from the Greater Melton Region, attracted by the company's innovative approach and community focus. More here.

Success doesn’t rest on weekends! 
Get the latest on top agent and agency moves every Sunday with our weekly roundup in Movers & Shakers. Subscribe now.

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Wishing you a productive day!

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